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Sunday, July 23, 2023

Typhoon "Egay" Unleashes Fury: Heavy Rains and Gale-Force Winds Threaten Landfall

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Typhoon "Egay" has continued to intensify as it moves westward over the Philippine Sea. The typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday afternoon. It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves southwest of Taiwan. After leaving the PAR, the typhoon is expected to make landfall over Fujian, China, on late Thursday or early Friday.

As of the latest advisory, the center of the eye of Typhoon Egay was estimated to be at 525 km east of Baler, Aurora, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 185 km/h. The typhoon is moving westward slowly.

Hazardous Weather Conditions Affecting Land Areas:

  1. Heavy Rainfall Outlook: The Philippines is expected to experience significant rainfall in the coming days. Specific areas and forecasted accumulated rainfall include:

Today to tomorrow noon:

  • Cagayan, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Sorsogon may experience 50-100 mm of rainfall.

Tomorrow noon to Wednesday noon:

  • Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, northern portion of Apayao, Abra, and the northern portion of La Union may receive rainfall above 200 mm.
  • The northern and eastern portion of Isabela, the rest of Apayao, the rest of La Union, Mt. Province, Benguet, and the western portion of Pangasinan may experience 100-200 mm of rainfall.
  • The rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Pangasinan, and Zambales may receive 50-100 mm of rainfall.

Wednesday noon to Thursday noon:

  • Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and the northwestern portion of Abra may experience rainfall above 200 mm.
  • The northern portion of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, the rest of Abra, and Ilocos Sur may receive 100-200 mm of rainfall.
  • The rest of mainland Cagayan, Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan may experience 50-100 mm of rainfall.

Flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards, as identified in hazard maps and localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall in the past several days. Elevated or mountainous areas may generally experience higher forecasted rainfall.

  1. Severe Winds: Typhoon "Egay" may cause gale-force winds within areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect, and strong winds within areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is hoisted. The highest wind signal that may be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4 or 5, indicating a typhoon-force wind threat.

Areas not under any Wind Signal may experience gusty conditions, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. The affected areas vary each day, as mentioned in the advisory.

  1. Coastal Inundation: There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 meters in height, which may cause flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Isabela.

Hazardous Weather Conditions Affecting Coastal Waters:

A Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southeastern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts, and larger vessels operating in gale conditions require experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.

Furthermore, in the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) may be experienced over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters.

Track and Intensity Outlook:

Typhoon "Egay" is expected to track west-northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning northwestward and heading closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, the typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday afternoon.

The typhoon may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, Typhoon "Egay" will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China, on late Thursday or early Friday.

It's important to note that further shifts in the track forecast closer to Luzon remain a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. The forecast confidence cone represents this uncertainty, and as such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.

Typhoon "Egay" is forecast to continue intensifying and may reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or early Wednesday. However, if the track forecast shifts closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below super typhoon threshold. Nevertheless, it is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).

Precautionary Measures:

Given the potential hazards posed by Typhoon "Egay," the following precautionary measures are recommended:

  • Prepare flashlights, batteries, matches, kerosene lamps, or candles, and charcoal in anticipation of power failure.
  • Have a first aid kit and store ready-to-eat foods.
  • Keep cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household items in case of flooding.
  • Secure fishing boats and avoid venturing into dangerous coastal waters for fishing activities.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.

Local authorities and disaster preparedness agencies are urged to be on alert and ready to respond to any emergency situations that may arise. Residents in affected areas are encouraged to stay updated with official advisories and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety and well-being.

Locations under Signal No. 2:

Catanduanes, central and eastern portion of Isabela (Palanan, Dinapigue, Santo Tomas, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo, Maconacon, Santa Maria, Quezon, Delfin Albano, Mallig, Quirino, Roxas, Burgos, Ilagan City, Divilacan, San Mariano, Gamu, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, City of Cauayan, Reina Mercedes, Luna, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, San Isidro, San Agustin), eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Malinao, Tiwi), eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, San Jose, Sagñay), northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan), eastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), eastern and central portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Amulung, Alcala, Iguig, Tuguegarao City, Solana, Enrile), and the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Calaguas and Maculabo Islands)

Locations under Signal No. 1:

Sorsogon, the rest of Albay, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Isabela, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the rest of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Batanes, Masbate including Ticao Island, Burias Island, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the rest of Aurora, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, La Union, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Marinduque, Cavite, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, eastern and central portion of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Romblon, Magdiwang, Cajidiocan, San Fernando) and the northern and central portion of Batangas (Calaca, Cuenca, Taysan, Lian, Tuy, Balayan, Talisay, Padre Garcia, Agoncillo, Santo Tomas, San Jose, Lemery, Lipa City, Ibaan, City of Tanauan, Mataasnakahoy, Alitagtag, Balete, Nasugbu, San Juan, San Nicolas, Rosario, Laurel, Santa Teresita, Taal, Malvar) and the northeastern portion of Northern Samar (Laoang, Palapag), the rest of Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, northern and central portion of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Mahaplag, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, Abuyog, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Javier, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, City of Baybay, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo) and the northern portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands, Camotes Islands.

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